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Sea ice sensitivity to GMST - Calculate from observational datasets#4220

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4095-add-observations-to-sea-ice-sensitivity-recipe-retry
Open

Sea ice sensitivity to GMST - Calculate from observational datasets#4220
NParsonsMO wants to merge 83 commits into
mainfrom
4095-add-observations-to-sea-ice-sensitivity-recipe-retry

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@NParsonsMO

@NParsonsMO NParsonsMO commented Oct 13, 2025

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Added capacity to calculate trends from observational datasets (though also keeping currently provided values, as Notz-style includes a "plausible" range that is beyond scope).

Observations are shown as squares.

Annual trend in siconc for NOAA dataset is slightly different between this and Roach's figures, 0.01677... vs 0.01692....

Annual trends for GMST were taken as one average in Roach's plots, so will not be identical.

The published plot used data up to 2018, but we only use up to 2014.

The hatching criterion for the Roach-style plot is now consistent with the published plot.

Added ability to plot two different time periods in Notz-style plot, ready for use with CMIP7 datasets.


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New or updated recipe/diagnostic

New or updated data reformatting script


To help with the number of pull requests:

 - Removed obs from Roach-style graphic (left description for reference).
 - Fed in model datasets from recipe differently to allow for obs having a different variable.

 To do:
  - Calculate and plot the obs.
  - Print the obs trend values.
@NParsonsMO NParsonsMO self-assigned this Oct 13, 2025
@NParsonsMO NParsonsMO linked an issue Oct 13, 2025 that may be closed by this pull request
@valeriupredoi

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please give the PR a suitable title, when you have a minute (even if it's a draft) 😁

@NParsonsMO NParsonsMO changed the title In progress: Sea ice sensitivity to GMST - Calculate from observational datasets Nov 24, 2025
Co-authored-by: Alistair Sellar <16133375+alistairsellar@users.noreply.github.com>
start_day: 1
start_month: 1
start_year: 1979
start_year: &data_start 1979

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It did not that I could see.

OK. In which case (and reflecting an offline comment from Ed) it could be more obvious to specify the dates in the dataset specifications. (Still sticking with the hard-wiring approach.

@NParsonsMO

NParsonsMO commented May 30, 2026

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OK. In which case (and reflecting an offline comment from Ed) it could be more obvious to specify the dates in the dataset specifications. (Still sticking with the hard-wiring approach.

I've changed where the years are set in 2bff0ef.

I've added a warning if not all periods are the same in 2971258.

If nobody specifies any years anywhere then the script will fail because ESMValTool will just pre-process all available data, and then when it tries to calculate the regression of OSI-SAF data over, say, HadCRUT5 data the dimensions don't match, so I've added a note to the documentation in 26b7d2f.

@NParsonsMO NParsonsMO requested a review from alistairsellar May 30, 2026 21:27
@schlunma schlunma added this to the v2.15.0 milestone Jun 1, 2026
@schlunma schlunma added the REF Important for the CMIP Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) label Jun 1, 2026

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Thanks @NParsonsMO, code looks good to me! I only have a couple of minor comments.

Please run pre-commit run --all on your code, this should also fix most of the Codacy issues.

Thanks!

Comment thread esmvaltool/diag_scripts/seaice/seaice_sensitivity.py
Comment thread esmvaltool/diag_scripts/seaice/seaice_sensitivity.py
Comment thread esmvaltool/diag_scripts/seaice/seaice_sensitivity.py Outdated
Comment thread esmvaltool/diag_scripts/seaice/seaice_sensitivity.py
Comment thread esmvaltool/diag_scripts/seaice/seaice_sensitivity.py
@NParsonsMO

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Thanks @NParsonsMO, code looks good to me! I only have a couple of minor comments.

Please run pre-commit run --all on your code, this should also fix most of the Codacy issues.

Thanks!

Thank-you!

Of the two remaining Codacy issues:

  1. I disagree that the Iris constraint should have a comma (though feel free to tell me it should!)
  2. The plotting code does have a lot of statements, but I couldn't think how to write it more neatly while still being readable and potentially plotting the two different time periods wanted for the CMIP7 version.

@NParsonsMO NParsonsMO requested a review from schlunma June 1, 2026 13:50

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I disagree that the Iris constraint should have a comma (though feel free to tell me it should!)

Sounds good!

The plotting code does have a lot of statements, but I couldn't think how to write it more neatly while still being readable and potentially plotting the two different time periods wanted for the CMIP7 version.

Sounds good to me as well!

Thanks for addressing my comments, just one more tiny comment.

Comment thread esmvaltool/diag_scripts/seaice/seaice_sensitivity.py Outdated

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Thanks for addressing my comments.

Co-authored-by: Manuel Schlund <32543114+schlunma@users.noreply.github.com>
@NParsonsMO

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I disagree that the Iris constraint should have a comma (though feel free to tell me it should!)

Sounds good!

The plotting code does have a lot of statements, but I couldn't think how to write it more neatly while still being readable and potentially plotting the two different time periods wanted for the CMIP7 version.

Sounds good to me as well!

Thanks for addressing my comments, just one more tiny comment.

Hi @schlunma, are you willing/able to merge this? Or are there more steps I need to take / should it be a non-reviewer?

@NParsonsMO

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@ESMValGroup/technical-lead-development-team Is anyone able to merge this please? Thank-you!

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Add observations to sea ice sensitivity recipe

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