- Project Overview
- Features
- Sample Output
- Real-World Case Studies
- Installation and Usage
- Version History
- Citations and References
MarginofVictory calculator is a Java application designed to analyze electoral race competitiveness by calculating the margin of victory and providing professional race ratings. This enhanced version (v2.0) demonstrates programming skills that are applied to real-world political analysis, while following industry standards and CPT-236 course objectives.
Developer: Shamar Davis
Course: CPT-236 (Intro to Java)
Version: 2.0 (Enhanced)
Date: July 7, 2025
- Margin of Victory Calculation: Computes the absolute difference between candidate vote percentages.
- Professional Race Rating System: Classifies races as Tossup, Tilt, Lean, Likely, or Safe using industry-standard thresholds.
- Comprehensive Input Validation: Ensures all vote percentages are between 0 and 100, with clear error messages.
- Winner Determination: Identifies the leading candidate and party affiliation.
- Flip Detection: Signals a "FLIP" if the winner's party differs from the incumbent party.
- Professional Output: Displays results in a clear, formatted summary suitable for academic and real-world use.
- Robust Error Handling: Guides users to correct invalid or out-of-range input.
State Abbreviation: NC
Office or District (e.g., 1, Governor, Mayor): 11th Congressional District
Enter the first candidate's name: Chuck Edwards
Enter the second candidate's name:
Jasmine Beach-Ferrara
What is the party affiliation of Chuck Edwards? (Democrat or Republican) Republican
Chuck Edwards is a Republican.
What is the party affiliation of Jasmine Beach-Ferrara? (Democrat or Republican) Democrat
Jasmine Beach-Ferrara is a Democrat.
Which party has the incumbency?
Republican
Enter the vote percentage for Chuck Edwards (0-100): 53.8
Enter the vote percentage for Jasmine Beach-Ferrara (0-100): 44.5
--- Election Results ---
State: NC | Office/District: 11th Congressional District
Chuck Edwards (Republican): 53.80%
Jasmine Beach-Ferrara (Democrat): 44.50%
Margin of Victory: 9.30%
Chuck Edwards (Republican) is the winner. Race rating: Likely Republican
Thank you for using the Margin of Victory calculator!
State Abbreviation: NC
Office or District (e.g., 1, Governor, Mayor): Governor
Enter the first candidate's name: Josh Stein
Enter the second candidate's name:
Mark Robinson
What is the party affiliation of Josh Stein? (Democrat or Republican) Democrat
Josh Stein is a Democrat.
What is the party affiliation of Mark Robinson? (Democrat or Republican) Republican
Mark Robinson is a Republican.
Which party has the incumbency?
Democratic
Enter the vote percentage for Josh Stein (0-100): 54.90
Enter the vote percentage for Mark Robinson (0-100): 40.08
--- Election Results ---
State: NC | Office/District: Governor
Josh Stein (Democrat): 54.90%
Mark Robinson (Republican): 40.08%
Margin of Victory: 14.82%
Josh Stein (Democrat) is the winner. Race rating: Safe Democratic
Thank you for using the Margin of Victory calculator!
State Abbreviation: PA
Office or District (e.g., 1, Governor, Mayor): 6th Congressional District
Enter the first candidate's name: Chrissy Houlahan
Enter the second candidate's name:
Greg McCauley
What is the party affiliation of Chrissy Houlahan? (Democrat or Republican) Democrat
Chrissy Houlahan is a Democrat.
What is the party affiliation of Greg McCauley? (Democrat or Republican) Republican
Greg McCauley is a Republican.
Which party has the incumbency?
Republican
Enter the vote percentage for Chrissy Houlahan (0-100): 58.9
Enter the vote percentage for Greg McCauley (0-100): 41.1
--- Election Results ---
State: PA | Office/District: 6th Congressional District
Chrissy Houlahan (Democrat): 58.90%
Greg McCauley (Republican): 41.10%
Margin of Victory: 17.80%
Chrissy Houlahan (Democrat) is the winner. Race rating: Safe Democratic
** FLIP: Democratic gains this seat! **
Thank you for using the Margin of Victory calculator!
These examples demonstrate how the MarginofVictory calculator's race rating system applies to actual election outcomes:
-
North Carolina Supreme Court (2024):
Decided by exactly 734 votes—a margin of roughly 0.01% in a statewide race with millions of voters. Allison Riggs (D) won, but the race remained in litigation until May 7, 2025, demonstrating how ultra-close margins can trigger extended legal challenges. -
Pennsylvania U.S. Senate (2024):
Dave McCormick (R) defeated incumbent Bob Casey Jr. (D) by approximately 16,000 votes out of nearly 7 million cast—a margin of roughly 0.2%. Casey challenged the results in court until the week of Thanksgiving 2024, showing how even federal races can trigger extended legal battles when margins fall into the Tossup category. -
Iowa's 2nd Congressional District (2020):
Initially decided by just 6 votes, later certified with a 6-vote margin after multiple recounts.
-
Nevada U.S. Senate (2022):
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) defeated Adam Laxalt (R) by 7,928 votes, a margin of 0.78%—demonstrating a "Tilt" category race where the incumbent narrowly survived in a crucial swing state contest that helped determine Senate control. -
Florida Governor (2018):
Ron DeSantis (R) defeated Andrew Gillum (D) by just 32,463 votes out of over 8.2 million cast—a margin of 0.4%. This race occurred before the COVID-era political realignment that has since made Florida more reliably Republican.
-
Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District (2024):
Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) defeated incumbent Matt Cartwright (D) by approximately 1.6%—demonstrating a "Lean" category race where the challenger successfully unseated an incumbent, flipping the seat from Democratic to Republican control in a closely divided district. Trump carried this district by approximately 8.49%, showing significant ticket-splitting where many Trump voters chose the Democratic incumbent. -
California's 45th Congressional District (2024):
Derek Tran (D) defeated incumbent Michelle Steel (R) by approximately 1.8%—another "Lean" category race showing how competitive districts can flip between parties when margins fall in this range. Harris carried this district by approximately 1.2%, demonstrating split-ticket voting where voters chose the presidential candidate from one party while selecting a House candidate from the opposing party.
-
Pennsylvania 8th (Trump +8.49%, Bresnahan (R) +1.6%):
This district shows significant ticket-splitting favoring Democrats, where Trump's overwhelming performance (+8.49%) did not translate into an equally strong showing for the Republican House candidate. This represents a 6.89% ticket-split, indicating substantial crossover voting where Trump supporters chose the Democratic incumbent Cartwright. -
California 45th (Harris +1.6%, Tran (D) +1.8%):
This district shows modest ticket-splitting favoring Democrats, where the Democratic House candidate slightly outperformed Harris. This suggests effective campaigning by Tran and potential dissatisfaction with the Republican incumbent Steel, even in a district that narrowly preferred Harris for president.
Strategic Implications:
Both districts demonstrate how MarginofVictory calculator's "Lean" classification correctly identifies seats where split-ticket voting can determine outcomes, making them genuine pickup opportunities despite modest presidential leans.
The MarginofVictory calculator's rating system captures important electoral trends in Pennsylvania's suburban districts, particularly PA-07 and PA-08, which have experienced significant political realignment over the past decade:
-
2024 Senate Results (PA-07 Districtwide):
Dave McCormick (R): 49.6%
Bob Casey Jr. (D): 47.8%
Margin: McCormick +1.8% (Lean Republican) -
2024 Senate Results (Northampton County):
Dave McCormick (R): 49.13%
Bob Casey Jr. (D): 48.54%
Margin: McCormick +0.59% (Tilt Republican)
Note: While McCormick carried PA-07 districtwide by 1.8%, in Northampton County—a key swing county—his margin was only +0.59%, demonstrating the district’s internal competitiveness.
-
2024 Presidential Results (Northampton County - Major PA-07 Component):
Donald Trump (R): 50.40%
Kamala Harris (D): 48.62%
Margin: Trump +1.78% (Lean Republican) -
Northampton County Electoral Volatility (2016-2024):
- 2016: Trump +3.78% (Lean Republican) - First Republican victory since George H.W. Bush (1988)
- 2020: Biden +0.72% (Tilt Democratic) - Democratic recapture
- 2024: Trump +1.78% (Lean Republican) - Republican re-flip
-
2018 Senate Results:
Bob Casey Jr. (D): 55.1%
Lou Barletta (R): 44.9%
Margin: Casey +10.2% (Safe Democratic)
Electoral Shift:
PA-07 moved from Safe Democratic (+10.2%) to Lean Republican (+1.8%) districtwide (swing: 12.0%), but the Northampton County core moved to Tilt Republican (+0.59%)—a swing of 9.61% from 2018.
Summary Table:
| District | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-01 | Casey +13.8 (D) | Biden +4.6 (D) | — | Casey +0.9 (D) Harris +0.4 (D) Bucks flips R |
| PA-07 | Casey +10.2 (D) | Biden +0.72 (D, Northampton) | Wild +2.0 (D) Fetterman +4.5 (D) |
McCormick +1.8 (R)* Northampton: +0.59 (R) |
| PA-08 | Cartwright +9.8 (D) Casey +6.2 (D) |
Cartwright +3.6 (D) Trump +2.9 (R) |
Cartwright +2.4 (D) Fetterman +1.2 (D) |
Bresnahan +1.6 (R) (flip) McCormick +4.5 (R) Trump ~+8.5 (R) |
* Districtwide total. Northampton County (the swing core of PA-07) was McCormick +0.59%.
-
2024 House Results:
Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R): 50.8%
Matt Cartwright (D): 49.2%
Margin: Bresnahan +1.6% (Lean Republican)
Incumbent Defeated: Cartwright loses after three consecutive victories -
2024 Senate Results:
Dave McCormick (R): 52.25%
Bob Casey Jr. (D): 47.75%
Margin: McCormick +4.5% (Lean Republican) -
2024 Presidential Results (District Overall):
Donald Trump (R): ~54.25%
Kamala Harris (D): ~45.75%
Margin: Trump +8.5% (Likely Republican) - Populist Democratic crossover effect -
Historical House Results - Cartwright Performance Trajectory:
- 2022: Cartwright (D) +2.4% (Lean Democratic)
- 2020: Cartwright (D) +3.8% (Lean Democratic)
- 2018: Cartwright (D) +9.8% (Likely Democratic)
-
2018 Senate Results (Historical Context):
Bob Casey Jr. (D): 53.1%
Lou Barletta (R): 46.9%
Margin: Casey +6.2% (Likely Democratic)
- For a runnable code demonstration, see
PennsylvaniaElectoralAnalyzer.java. - For a visual/narrative case study with references and context, see
Case_Study.md.
- Clone or Download this repository.
- Compile the program:
javac MarginOfVictory.java - Run the program:
java MarginOfVictory - Follow the prompts to enter state, office or district, candidate names, party affiliations, incumbent party, and vote percentages.
- v1.0: Prototype with basic margin calculation and output.
- v2.0: Enhanced with professional output, robust input validation, race rating, and flip detection.
- Industry-standard race rating thresholds: Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics), FiveThirtyEight (now part of Cook Political Report)
- Real-world election data: Ballotpedia
- Java documentation: Oracle Java SE Docs
Some portions of this project, including formatting, data consistency checks, and calculation logic, were assisted by GitHub Copilot (AI). All research, data selection, narrative analysis, and conclusions are original work by Shamar Davis. The AI was used as a tool to enhance clarity, accuracy, and professional presentation, but the core analysis and interpretation reflect the author's own research and perspective.
Copyright (c) 2025 Shamar Davis.
For academic and professional use in CPT-236 and portfolio demonstration.