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Tutorial on Targeted Maximum Likelihood (TMLE) method for causal inference

This paper was written by Elena Petridou, Valérie Valckx & Victoria Zillo as part of the course Causal Inference 2 at Leiden University.

The tutorial explores what targeted maximum likelihood is, what the benefits of this method are, and shows an application of it on a simulated dataset based on the one studied in Noll et al. (2025)*.

The code used in the tutorial is contained inline within the PDF document.

*Noll, A. T. R., van Hoogstraten, A., Nulens, K., van Geloven, N., Van Mieghem, T., Shinar, S., Zuazagoitia, P. A., Bennasar, M., Russo, F. M., Tiblad, E., Herling, L., Lewi, L., Joanne Verweij, E. J. T., & ALIGN Study Group (2025). Outcome of monochorionic diamniotic twin pregnancy with selective fetal growth restriction and continuous or intermittent absent or reversed end-diastolic umbilical artery flow: international multicenter cohort study. Ultrasound in obstetrics & gynecology : the official journal of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology, 66(1), 41–50. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.29241

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Tutorial on Targeted Maximum Likelihood (TMLE) method from package tmle in R

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